It’s never too early to start thinking about Selection Sunday, right? So much of how teams end up seeded on the second Sunday in March comes back to how they played in the nonconference slate, when league strength gets evaluated and résumés get built. That’s particularly true for teams hoping for No. 1 seeds, given how little room there is for error to end up on the No. 1 line.
Here’s a look at the early race for those four top spots in the 2023 men’s NCAA tournament.
Today’s four No. 1sNo. 1 overall: Purdue
The Boilermakers’ three neutral-court wins over top-20 NET opponents are doing a lot of work here, as the team’s win over West Virginia on Thanksgiving has joined its headliner victories over Duke and Gonzaga as significant needle-movers at this moment. Those three wins, plus a home victory over Marquette, gives Purdue the nation’s best résumé at this point and a real inside track for a No. 1 seed come March. The Big Ten provides very few opportunities for bad losses and plenty of chances to pad the Quadrant 1 and 2 win columns, so the Boilermakers can afford some slipups during league play and still wind up on the No. 1 line. I’d imagine 15–5 or better in the Big Ten would put Purdue in an extremely strong position for receiving its first No. 1 seed since 1996.
UConn
UConn has a strong case for being the nation’s best team qualitatively, sitting at No. 1 in the NET rankings and No. 2 in KenPom with nonconference play in the rearview mirror. That alone is enough to put the Huskies on the No. 1 line at this point, as it’s hard to argue about putting a team that has won every game it has played by double figures and has seven high-major wins.
Still, there is a bit of vulnerability in UConn’s résumé long term if the Huskies slip up a few times during Big East play. The team’s neutral-court win over Alabama is doing a of work here, as none of UConn’s other wins are ones to truly build a résumé around. And while there should be plenty of chances for good wins in Big East play, Creighton’s six-game slide earlier this month means there are likely no wins out there in conference play for the Huskies. Others could pass the Huskies if they don’t post a gaudy win-loss record, jeopardizing UConn’s chances of staying in the East Regional and getting to play Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games at Madison Square Garden.
The Cougars are one of four teams in men’s college basketball with four Quad 1 wins and have done the necessary work in nonconference play to position themselves for a top seed. While its fourth Q1 victory over Kent State seems unlikely to stay in that bucket come March, the Cougars’ road win at Virginia is one of the better wins any team has on its résumé.
Playing in the AAC is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Houston has a chance to really stack wins down the stretch, and it’s hard to imagine a team with elite metrics, a road win at an ACC contender and no bad losses sitting at something like 32–3 going into Selection Sunday not getting the No. 1 nod. At the same time, Houston has little it can do to move to needle and several games that could do real résumé damage should it lose.
Kansas
The defending national champions are in solid shape as things stand now, with high-quality wins against Indiana at home, Duke and Wisconsin on neutral floors and on the road at Missouri. The Jayhawks are in the top five of both the NET and KenPom, their only loss to a fellow top-five team in the NET (Tennessee), and they may not play a single game outside the first two quadrants for the remainder of the season. That’s a pretty good recipe for holding on to this top seed.
Last year’s Kansas résumé withstood four conference losses and getting blown out in late January by Kentucky at home en route to a No. 1 seed. Five defeats the rest of the way once again should likely be the target—any more and the Jayhawks’ total quantity of losses could come into play against other high-seed contenders, but any less and KU will likely be in the mix not just for a top seed, but potentially the No. 1 overall spot.